受国家计委委托，中国国际工程咨询公司日前对上海“十五”期间建设的明珠线二期、莘闵线等九个项目进行“捆绑式”评估。专家一致认为方案合理可行。此次接受专家评估的9条轨道交通线路总长约188km，共设置车站133座。预计到2005年末，上海轨道交通日客运量将从现有的80万人次增加到320万人次，占公交客运量的比重将由目前的11%提高到25%。这一前所未有的建设规模，标志着我国在“十五”期间将迎来城市轨道交通的建设高潮。
正因为此，城市轨道交通项目评估工作受到各方面的关注。本期刊发沈景炎的大作《城市轨道交通客流预测的评估与抗风险设计》，是作者多年从事评估工作后的理论创新。该文分析了客流预测的难度与风险，并创立了抗风险设计的理念和方法，值得业内人士一读。
梁广深的《地铁设计中几个热点问题的探讨》对于“通过能力是否需要提高到每小时40对”等热点问题，提出了自己的观点。文中不乏真知灼见。
上海实行城市轨道交通“投资、建设、运营、管理”四分开体制与多元化投融资体制。申通公司近两年来以25%的政府投资吸纳了75%的社会资本。如何把城市轨道交通作为公共产品的经济属性与提高投资回报率统一起来，请参阅张波、孙章的论文《城市轨道交通的经济属性与管理体制创新》。
吴定俊的《高架轻轨桥梁设计参数取值分析》，根据城市轨道交通的特点及其与干线铁路的区别，结合上海轨道交通高架桥的建设实践，提出了轻轨高架线路桥梁设计参数的合理值。
本文与罗湘萍、沈培德的《城市轨道交通车辆限界计算方法研究》一文，对于当前正在制定的地铁轻轨建设标准很有参考价值。
Editor's Remarks
Entrusted by State Economic
Commission, China International
Engineering Consultant Inc.
has made a package evaluation
of 9 rail transit projects,
which are to be constructed
during the 10th Five-Year
Plan in Shanghai, and all
the experts present have come
to the conclusion unanimously
that these projects are feasible
and fit to actual circumstances.
When completed, the total
length of the 9 rail lines,
including the 2nd stage of
Shanghai Pearl Line and Xin-Min
Line, will be 188 km and 133
stations will be constructed.
It is estimated that by the
end of 2005, the daily passenger
flow of Shanghai rail transit
will increase from the present
800,000 to 3,200,000, and
the share of rail transit
in all public transportation
will jump from 11% to 25%.
This unprecedented large scale
will open a new chapter of
urban mass transit construction
in China during the 10th Five-Year
Plan.
Because of the significance
of urban rail transit, the
evaluation of CIEC has aroused
wide-ranging concern from
all sides. We recommend “Evaluation
and Anti-risk Design of the
Flow Prediction in Urban Mass
Transit” to our readers, not
only because it is a theoretical
innovation of the author after
many years' hard work in project
evaluation, but also because
his new thoughts and methods
in anti-risk design based
on the convincing analysis
of the difficulties and risks
in the flow prediction.
About whether shall we dispatch
40 pairs of train per hour
to enlarge the passing capacity,
“Discussion on Some Important
Problems in Metro Designing”
advances some penetrating
ideas.
The separated system of
investment, construction,
operation and management,
the diversified financing
system of Shanghai urban rail
transit have proved to be
successful. In the past 2
years, Shanghai Shentong Co.,
Ltd. has raised 75% funds
from the society with only
25% of the government investment.
How can we integrate the economic
nature of urban mass transit,
a public service product,
with a higher rate of returns,
please read “Economic Attributes
of Urban Mass Transit and
Innovation of the Management
System”.
If our readers want to learn
something about the construction
standards for metro and LRT,
which are under formulation,
we recommend “Study on Design
Parameter
for Elevated LRT Bridge” and
“A Study of Vehicle Gauge
Calculation Method of
Urban Railway Transit” to
you. The former has discussed
the characteristics of UMT
and its difference from other
rail transit, and calculated
the rational value of design
parameter, in line with the
practice of the elevated rail
transit in Shanghai, for the
elevated light rail bridge. |
