作者：佘世英  李建忠   郑猛
(武汉市城市综合交通规划设计研究院，410017，武汉∥第一作者，工程师)

摘要：客流预测是贯穿城市轨道交通规划、设计和运营全过程的一项系统工程。目前我国城市轨道交通建设已进入快速发展时期，部分城市在轨道交通运营过程中逐步积累了客流方面的第一手资料。如何利用这些资料来改进和优化原有客流预测模型、提高预测的精度具有十分重要的意义。在回顾武汉市交通预测模型发展的基础上，介绍了利用1号线一期工程客流资料对现有模型进行改进和优化的过程，以及将轨道矩阵从公共交通总矩阵中分离的具体方法。实践证明，在已标定完善的轨道模型基础上进行轨道交通客流预测，其客流预测成果更具合理性。
关键词：城市轨道交通； 客流预测； 模型改进
中图分类号U 293.1+3

Calibration of Wuhan Rail Passenger Forecast Model Built on the Existing Model
She Shiying, Li Jianzhong, Zheng Meng
Abstract：Passenger volume forecast is a systematic engineering during the planning, design and operation of urban rail transit. Metro construction has entered a very rapid development period in China now, many cities have collected the first hand information of metro passenger flow, but how to optimize the passanger forecast model by using these information? Base on Whan transportation forecast model, this paper introduces the imporvement to the existing model by using the passenger flow information of Wuhan metro Line 1, and a detailed method to separate the metro matrix from the public transit matrix. This metrod has been proved to be efficient and reasonable through practice.
Key words：urban rail transit; passenger volume forecast; model improvement
Firstauthor's addressWuhan City Comprehensive Transportation Planning & Design Institute,410017,Wuhan,China

来源：2008年第1期《城市轨道交通研究》杂志研究报告栏目